ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSING SALES TO FOREIGNERS AND THE HOUSING BUBBLE WITH GSADF TESTS: THE CASE OF ISTANBUL, ANTALYA PROVINCES AND THROUGHOUT TURKEY
Keywords:
Housing Sales To Foreigners, Housing Bubble, SADF, GSADFAbstract
In case of some possibilities such as the fast and extraordinary increase of housing prices, its deviation from the basic values,the expectations of house buyers that this increase will be more become a reality,the housing bubble can occur.Throughout Turkey and in Istanbul, Antalya after the year 2016,the percentage share of house sales to foreigners in total house sales and nominal house prices have increased continually .Thus,it is essential to search if there exists the housing bubble in Istanbul and Antalya provinces or not throughout Turkey and if there is the bubble,which period of time it is in have great importance and constitutes the objective of the study.With this objective, house price index during the period 2010.01-2019.12 in Istanbul and throughout Turkey and in Antalya during the period of 2013.01-2019.12 have been made free from monthly seasonal effect through Tramo/ Seats method and have been made real via producer price index. Antalya house price index has been established pertaining to this study and it has been first used in the literature. If the presence of a bubble is detected in the data,the methodology of right-tailed ADF tests which have the strategy of indicating the start and finish dates constitute the method of the study.As a result of the study,rational housing bubble formation was observed throughout Turkey between the periods of 2014.11-2016.11 and 2018.04-2019.01 and in Istanbul between 2013.03-2013.12, 2014.04-2016.12 and 2018.01-2019.08,in Antalya between the periods of 2018.08-2018.11. What observed bubbles have in common is that they hit the peak in the year 2018 following the legal regulations that make it easy for the foreigners to acquire housing.Within the scope of the obtained findings, it has been determined that there is a strong relationship between house sales to foreigners and the housing bubble.
